Wild prospect Charlie Stramel taking a ‘chip on my shoulder’ to Michigan State after trying year at Wisconsin

Wild prospect Charlie Stramel taking a ‘chip on my shoulder’ to Michigan State after trying year at Wisconsin

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ST. PAUL, Minn. — Charlie Stramel said all the right things Tuesday, mostly that this is now on him and he’s going to have to determine if he’s going to make it to the next level and perhaps one day have a successful NHL career.He made no excuses about what led to his second straight sub-par season at the University of Wisconsin, not blaming early season injuries for his season-long lack of production nor Mike Hastings for playing him down near the bottom of the Badgers’ lineup.Instead, the Wild’s 2023 first-round pick tried to keep the focus on the future and his transfer to Michigan State, calling it a “no-brainer” to leave Wisconsin and attempt to prove all his naysayers wrong during a clean slate under one of his former USA Hockey coaches, Adam Nightingale, with the Spartans.“I’m pumped,” Stramel, the Rosemount, Minn., native, said. “Playing with a chip on my shoulder this season and looking forward to it. … I was always thinking, ‘If I’m ever going to leave, I’m going to go somewhere where I trust somebody and with Nightingale and Michigan State … upcoming here, it was a no-brainer to go there.’”
Charlie Stramel says it was a “no brainer” to transfer to Michigan State and that he’ll be playing with a “chip on my shoulder” this season pic.twitter.com/dO4P7LAMHq
— Michael Russo (@RussoHockey) July 9, 2024Stramel, 19, scored three goals and eight points in 35 games during his second year with Wisconsin after having five goals and 12 points in 32 games as a freshman.That lack of productivity and his usage mostly at fourth-line right wing sure didn’t quiet the critics who were already scrutinizing the Wild’s decision to skip skilled forward Gabe Perreault on their draft list and take a leap at Stramel.Stramel was drafted as a center, and at 6-foot-3 with a power game in his arsenal, the Wild were intrigued by the overall package because there’s no doubt that has long been an organizational need.Granted he’s young and it’s way, way too premature to hurl him into the pile of failed Wild first-round picks, Stramel feels the pressure to prove himself now. The Wild have supported him since drafting him. They stick up for him every chance they get.Now he must prove them correct in their faith.He knows it.So, first things first, it’s that power game that Stramel hopes to rediscover at Michigan State.“I think getting back to my identity,” he said. “Just getting back to the power forward, 200-foot center, winning draws, good at the net front. Not straying away from that. I think at times I strayed away from that at Wisconsin and it hurt me. I’ve got to stick to the player I am and the player I’m hopefully going to be at the next level.”Wild director of amateur scouting Judd Brackett believes being reunited with Nightingale after spending two years together at the U.S. National Team Development Program will do wonders.“To be back with a coach he has trust and confidence in is what he needs right now,” Brackett said. “He needs to go in feeling sure of himself, his ability and where his role and opportunity is going to be, but now it’s up to him to perform. It’s a clean slate. It’s the right fit. It’s a great opportunity. But now the rubber’s gotta meet the road. He’s got to do it.”GO DEEPERRusso and Smith: Wild keeping faith in Charlie Stramel, but Judd Brackett says, ‘We want to see progress’Stramel said he learned a lot during his trying season with the Badgers, mostly that it’s up to “you” to work your way out of adverse situations. He had to endure plenty of them last season, from the early injuries to a new coach who didn’t recruit him and seemed to want to rely on veteran players the way he used to during his successful stint as Minnesota State’s coach.Stramel says he has worked hard this offseason to be in better shape and improve his first three steps in his stride. He’ll head to Michigan State after the Wild’s development camp, which wraps up Thursday.“This is a big year,” Stramel admitted. “I think confidence helps a lot in any player. You don’t always have it. You’re always working to get more of it. I think this summer even these first two months of the summer I’ve already felt like my confidence is up a lot more. I’m trying to carry that momentum into State.”Stramel does his best to avoid reading articles or the sometimes mean banter on social media from fans already labeling him a bust. First-round pick Marco Rossi was also smart enough to distance himself from that during his rough start to his NHL career. He worked his butt off last summer, scored 21 goals in his first full NHL season and last month was named to the NHL’s All-Rookie Team.And, by the way, Rossi is three years older than Stramel.“It definitely helps put a chip on my shoulder. I’m coming into this season with something to prove,” Stramel said of the criticism and worry about his future. “Like I said, I didn’t have a great season this year overall. I think everybody knows that. But (the Wild) have been every step of the way — player development, management — super supportive getting me back to the player they drafted and the player I want to be at the next level.”(Photo: Jason Kempin / Getty Images)


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MLB Draft prospect Charlie Condon’s time is now

MLB Draft prospect Charlie Condon’s time is now

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MLB Draft prospect Charlie Condon’s time is now

\n\n”,”providerName”:”Twitter”,”providerUrl”:”https://twitter.com”,”thumbnail_url”:null,”type”:”oembed”,”width”:550,”contentType”:”rich”},”__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”It’s crazy. Somehow, nobody of influence looked at this 6-foot-5, admittedly skinny dude who was athletic enough to be recruited by Division III schools to play quarterback and thought, “Hmm, if he fills out a little bit, he could really be something.”\n\nNobody until Fletcher.\n\n“The more I got to know him outside of what I saw with him hitting,” says Fletcher, “he was quarterback of the football team, class president, involved in everything in high school … the kid’s just a leader and people like him. There’s a toughness to him. He’s very coachable and manageable, and I could see him developing.”\n\nSo in advance of Condon’s senior year of high school, Fletcher made some calls. He’s a former pitcher for the University of Tennessee, so, naturally, his first call was to Volunteers coach Tony Vitello.\n\nNow this is a part of the Condon story where you just have to stop and laugh, knowing what we know now. Vitello’s Volunteers just had an epic 2024, winning 60 games, producing seven players on MLB Pipeline’s Top 250 Draft Prospects list, falling just four team home runs shy of an NCAA record and winning the College World Series for the first national championship in program history.\n\nThe Vols have it all … and they could have had Charlie Condon too!”,”type”:”text”,”__typename”:”DynamicInclude”,”type”:”dynamicinclude”,”body”:”**More from MLB Pipeline**: \n• Top 100 prospects ,”__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”But Tennessee, like every school Fletcher called (Clemson and Tulane and on and on and on), was all out of scholarships. COVID was an obvious complication, maybe even a valid excuse, jamming up rosters with players who stayed on for an extra year of eligibility. College baseball teams don’t have that many scholarships to start with. And in an age in which players commit to clubs and clubs commit to players awfully early in their developmental timetable, there was simply no room at the inn — any inn — for Charlie Condon.\n\nHis only hope to play for a Division I program was to walk on. And if he was going to walk on anywhere, it was going to be at Georgia, in his home state.\n\n“You couldn’t get him away from that red and black,” Fletcher says.\n\nIt’s important to note that, all baseball aside, Condon got into Georgia on his own, academically. He had received the HOPE and Zell Miller Scholarships that provide extensive financial aid to exceptional students, and he was accepted into the Terry College of Business, which, according to the Princeton Review, has a 38% acceptance rate.\n\n* Subscribe to the MLB Pipeline Newsletter\n\nBut of course, Condon wasn’t all business. He wanted to play ball.\n\nThat’s where Scott Stricklin enters the picture. He was Georgia’s head coach at the time, and he remembers the phone call he received from friend Fletcher as follows:\n\n“Look, I’ve got a guy that would like to go to Georgia. He got into school on his own, which is hard to do. I can vouch for his character. I can vouch for his work ethic. He’s physical, maybe 6-foot-5, and he’s got some tools, and I think he can help you. I think he’s got a chance to be a really good player.”\n\nWith Fletcher’s work complete, Stricklin began communicating with Condon and his family, watched him on video (again, COVID), and, ultimately, a path developed for Condon to (maybe) play for his beloved Bulldogs.\n\n“He was a true walk-on,” Stricklin says. “He wasn’t a preferred walk-on. We didn’t help him get in. We didn’t promise him anything.”\n\nCondon got stronger and had a good senior year, but he still didn’t wind up on anyone’s Draft boards. So off he went to Athens to try to earn a spot on Stricklin’s squad.\n\n“He came in and worked his tail off,” says Stricklin, “and we decided to redshirt him.””,”type”:”text”,”__typename”:”OEmbed”,”html”:””,”providerName”:”Spotify”,”providerUrl”:null,”thumbnail_url”:null,”type”:”oembed”,”width”:425,”contentType”:”rich”,”__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”There it is. Another element of the Condon story that is crazy. Because the truth is that Condon flourished in the fall of his freshman year, and Stricklin admits now that Condon woulda/coulda/shoulda played for Georgia in the 2022 season.\n\nCOVID kind of screwed that up too.\n\n“It was still a disaster with rosters,” Stricklin says. “There were just kids everywhere and uncertainty of where this was going to go and what’s going to happen. So Charlie and Jim and Rebecca, his parents, came in, and we all sat down and talked and put our heads together, and everybody bought in \\[to the redshirt idea\\].”\n\nStricklin has seen what can happen when an athlete is redshirted. Some players can become embittered by the seeming slight and spend the year sulking. Others can have their confidence sapped by the setback and spend the year second-guessing themselves.\n\nOr you can do what Condon did: Put your head down and go to work.\n\n“We had a lot of talks about, ‘What are you going to do over the next 365 days to make yourself a better player?’” Stricklin recalls. “And he utilized every single day. He didn’t waste a day. He put on 15 to 20 pounds. He got stronger, and he got emotionally more mature, just watching the game from a different angle.”\n\nThen Condon spent the summer of 2022 with the St. Cloud (Minn.) Rox in the Northwoods League, a wood-bat league with a strong reputation for challenging players against elite competition. Condon showed no signs of rust from the redshirt year and more than held his own, slashing .286/.370/.460 in 61 games.\n\nCondon was in the St. Cloud dugout one day when Stricklin called to tell him he was sending over the scholarship papers.\n\nHe had earned his keep. And he’s been slugging ever since.\n\n“He’s very humble, he’s very hard-working, and I mean, he’s just a great, great kid,” Stricklin says. “He deserves all this because he made it happen.”\n\nHe’s loyal, too.\n\nWhen Stricklin was fired by Georgia after the 2023 season, every school in the country was clamoring for Condon to enter the transfer portal. He could have shopped himself to the highest bidder. But once again, nobody was going to get him away from the red and black. He stuck it out as Johnson came aboard.\n\n“I talked to him about his goals,” Johnson says. “He made it very clear that he wanted to try to move up Draft boards. So I talked to him about, ‘You’re a really good athlete, have you thought about moving positions and showing your versatility?’ We worked to do it. In the fall, in our scrimmages, he played every position but pitcher and catcher and did it for us at a good level.”\n\nCondon had been primarily a right fielder and first baseman in 2023. This past season, he made roughly half his starts at third base. That adaptability can aid him in an era in which defensive versatility is so highly valued.\n\nBut of course, it’s Condon’s bat that speaks loudest. He entered 2024 a consensus top-10 Draft prospect but not a clear candidate for No. 1 overall in a muddled field. His historic output at Georgia drastically altered the equation.\n\n“At the end of the day, Charlie Condon moved himself up Draft boards and probably earned himself another $4 million \\[in signing bonus money\\],” Johnson says. “Nobody in baseball is going to get that in NIL \\[name, image and likeness\\] money. The development and the work ethic and the drive to be great still can outweigh what a player can get in NIL money.”\n\nThe one person you haven’t heard from in this Condon story is, of course, Condon himself. He was taking a pre-Draft break from media after Georgia’s season ended one win shy of the College World Series.\n\nBut something Condon said when he appeared on the MLB Pipeline Podcast earlier this year speaks volumes about the can’t-miss prospect that EVERYBODY missed in 2021.\n\n“I don’t necessarily feel I was wronged out of high school with my recruiting process,” Condon said. “I wasn’t the caliber of player that I am today. I always knew I was going to be a late bloomer. That’s just kinda how my family genetics were. My brother grew late, my dad grew late when he was younger. So I knew it was just gonna take a little bit more time … I just had to believe in myself and know my time was eventually going to come.”\n\nThat time is here. Nobody is missing Charlie Condon now, and, in many ways, his crazy story is just beginning.”,”type”:”text”],”relativeSiteUrl”:”/news/charlie-condon-mlb-draft-prospect-2024″,”contentType”:”news”,”subHeadline”:null,”summary”:”The question from a fellow coach in Marietta, Ga.’s 6-4-3 DP Athletics travel ball program piqued Paul Fletcher’s interest.\n“I’ve got this kid, and I think he can hit,” Fletcher remembers the coach saying. “What do you think?”\nSo Fletcher ventured over to the field where a 17-year-old Charlie Condon”,”tagline(\”formatString\”:\”none\”)”:null,”tags”:[“__typename”:”InternalTag”,”slug”:”storytype-article”,”title”:”Article”,”type”:”article”,”__typename”:”PersonTag”,”slug”:”playerid-809707″,”title”:”Charlie Condon”,”person”:”__ref”:”Person:809707″,”type”:”player”,”__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”mlb-top-prospects”,”title”:”MLB Top Prospects”,”type”:”taxonomy”,”__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”mlb-draft”,”title”:”MLB Draft”,”type”:”taxonomy”,”__typename”:”ContributorTag”,”slug”:”anthony-castrovince”,”title”:”Anthony Castrovince”,”type”:”contributor”,”__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”apple-news”,”title”:”Apple News”,”type”:”taxonomy”,”__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”mlb-draft-related”,”title”:”mlb draft related”,”type”:”taxonomy”],”type”:”story”,”thumbnail”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/formatInstructions/mlb/ivsqrglahoxdxpksl1fz”,”title”:”MLB Draft prospect Charlie Condon’s time is now”}},”Person:809707″:”__typename”:”Person”,”id”:809707}}
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10:22 PM UTCThe question from a fellow coach in Marietta, Ga.’s 6-4-3 DP Athletics travel ball program piqued Paul Fletcher’s interest.
“I’ve got this kid, and I think he can hit,” Fletcher remembers the coach saying. “What do you think?”
So Fletcher ventured over to the field where a 17-year-old Charlie Condon played. Watched him hit a home run. Watched him scorch a line-drive out off a pretty good pitcher. Watched him belt a double off the center-field wall.
It was interesting … but inconclusive. Any kid can have a good day, Fletcher figured, so he spent the next couple weeks checking in on Condon, to see if those feats were a fluke.
Condon, this skinny 6-foot-5 kid who had somehow fallen through the cracks of the player procurement pipeline, just would not stop bashing baseballs.
“[Expletive],” Fletcher thought to himself. “This kid can play.”
We all know this now. At 21 years old, Condon is considered a can’t-miss kind of prospect.
At the University of Georgia this year, he won the Dick Howser Trophy as college baseball’s national player of the year. He won the Golden Spikes Award as the country’s top amateur baseball player. He led the NCAA in most major offensive categories, slugging the most home runs (37) of any collegiate player in the last quarter-century and posting the highest OPS (1.565) in the gauntlet that is the SEC … by 131 points.
He walked 57 times and struck out 41. He posted astounding exit velocities. He blistered breaking balls and incinerated inside pitches. By season’s end, he might not have been at the very top of every single board in an industry rife with opinions, but he is a clear candidate to go No. 1 overall in the upcoming MLB Draft.
“You look at Charlie,” says Georgia coach Wes Johnson, “and just go, ‘Wow, man.’”
Not just for the player Condon has become but for how he got here.
Charlie Condon does not whiff at many baseballs, but baseball whiffed on Charlie Condon when he was coming out of high school in 2021. It might be the biggest amateur miss since no team took a Fort Osage (Independence, Mo.) High School kid named Albert Pujols. Stephen Strasburg was famously overweight and underdeveloped coming out of his Santee, Calif., high school … but he was still heavily recruited nationwide. Mike Trout was famously underscouted in his rainy senior year in the swamps of Jersey … but he was still a first-round Draft pick.
Condon? Everybody missed. Everybody!
The big league teams that didn’t even sniff him for the Draft.
The Division I AND Division II programs that didn’t recruit him.
Heck, even that travel ball program in his hometown miscast him … as a Jaguar.
“The Cougars are the No. 1 team,” Fletcher says. “He wasn’t on our showcase team. He was on the Jaguars, one of our middle teams.”
Again, baseball is rife with stories of undervalued players who should have been drafted higher or given more money or more at-bats or more opportunities. Players who developed late or made mechanical or mindset changes that untapped their true talent. It’s an extremely difficult sport to project.
But Condon’s story is bizarre.
It’s not like he was out in the wilderness of central Idaho, swinging a tree branch to club rocks into the River of No Return. He was in Atlanta, for crying out loud! A baseball hotbed. A scouting enclave. A place to see and be seen. He was playing for the Walker School, a private college prep that has claimed multiple state titles. He was a participant in those Perfect Game tournaments that attract so many eyes. And he loved, loved, loved baseball.
“He was a great player, a great role model, a great kid,” says Danny Garofano, who coached Condon at the Walker School. “He hit over .500 his senior year. His junior year was cut short because of COVID, but he was having a great year there as well. Just because of his sheer size and power, he was so fun to watch in batting practice. He hit the ball a mile in all directions. I was surprised he didn’t have any offers.”
It’s crazy. Somehow, nobody of influence looked at this 6-foot-5, admittedly skinny dude who was athletic enough to be recruited by Division III schools to play quarterback and thought, “Hmm, if he fills out a little bit, he could really be something.”
“The more I got to know him outside of what I saw with him hitting,” says Fletcher, “he was quarterback of the football team, class president, involved in everything in high school … the kid’s just a leader and people like him. There’s a toughness to him. He’s very coachable and manageable, and I could see him developing.”
So in advance of Condon’s senior year of high school, Fletcher made some calls. He’s a former pitcher for the University of Tennessee, so, naturally, his first call was to Volunteers coach Tony Vitello.
Now this is a part of the Condon story where you just have to stop and laugh, knowing what we know now. Vitello’s Volunteers just had an epic 2024, winning 60 games, producing seven players on MLB Pipeline’s Top 250 Draft Prospects list, falling just four team home runs shy of an NCAA record and winning the College World Series for the first national championship in program history.
The Vols have it all … and they could have had Charlie Condon too!
But Tennessee, like every school Fletcher called (Clemson and Tulane and on and on and on), was all out of scholarships. COVID was an obvious complication, maybe even a valid excuse, jamming up rosters with players who stayed on for an extra year of eligibility. College baseball teams don’t have that many scholarships to start with. And in an age in which players commit to clubs and clubs commit to players awfully early in their developmental timetable, there was simply no room at the inn — any inn — for Charlie Condon.
His only hope to play for a Division I program was to walk on. And if he was going to walk on anywhere, it was going to be at Georgia, in his home state.
“You couldn’t get him away from that red and black,” Fletcher says.
It’s important to note that, all baseball aside, Condon got into Georgia on his own, academically. He had received the HOPE and Zell Miller Scholarships that provide extensive financial aid to exceptional students, and he was accepted into the Terry College of Business, which, according to the Princeton Review, has a 38% acceptance rate.
But of course, Condon wasn’t all business. He wanted to play ball.
That’s where Scott Stricklin enters the picture. He was Georgia’s head coach at the time, and he remembers the phone call he received from friend Fletcher as follows:
“Look, I’ve got a guy that would like to go to Georgia. He got into school on his own, which is hard to do. I can vouch for his character. I can vouch for his work ethic. He’s physical, maybe 6-foot-5, and he’s got some tools, and I think he can help you. I think he’s got a chance to be a really good player.”
With Fletcher’s work complete, Stricklin began communicating with Condon and his family, watched him on video (again, COVID), and, ultimately, a path developed for Condon to (maybe) play for his beloved Bulldogs.
“He was a true walk-on,” Stricklin says. “He wasn’t a preferred walk-on. We didn’t help him get in. We didn’t promise him anything.”
Condon got stronger and had a good senior year, but he still didn’t wind up on anyone’s Draft boards. So off he went to Athens to try to earn a spot on Stricklin’s squad.
“He came in and worked his tail off,” says Stricklin, “and we decided to redshirt him.”
There it is. Another element of the Condon story that is crazy. Because the truth is that Condon flourished in the fall of his freshman year, and Stricklin admits now that Condon woulda/coulda/shoulda played for Georgia in the 2022 season.
COVID kind of screwed that up too.
“It was still a disaster with rosters,” Stricklin says. “There were just kids everywhere and uncertainty of where this was going to go and what’s going to happen. So Charlie and Jim and Rebecca, his parents, came in, and we all sat down and talked and put our heads together, and everybody bought in [to the redshirt idea].”
Stricklin has seen what can happen when an athlete is redshirted. Some players can become embittered by the seeming slight and spend the year sulking. Others can have their confidence sapped by the setback and spend the year second-guessing themselves.
Or you can do what Condon did: Put your head down and go to work.
“We had a lot of talks about, ‘What are you going to do over the next 365 days to make yourself a better player?’” Stricklin recalls. “And he utilized every single day. He didn’t waste a day. He put on 15 to 20 pounds. He got stronger, and he got emotionally more mature, just watching the game from a different angle.”
Then Condon spent the summer of 2022 with the St. Cloud (Minn.) Rox in the Northwoods League, a wood-bat league with a strong reputation for challenging players against elite competition. Condon showed no signs of rust from the redshirt year and more than held his own, slashing .286/.370/.460 in 61 games.
Condon was in the St. Cloud dugout one day when Stricklin called to tell him he was sending over the scholarship papers.
He had earned his keep. And he’s been slugging ever since.
“He’s very humble, he’s very hard-working, and I mean, he’s just a great, great kid,” Stricklin says. “He deserves all this because he made it happen.”
When Stricklin was fired by Georgia after the 2023 season, every school in the country was clamoring for Condon to enter the transfer portal. He could have shopped himself to the highest bidder. But once again, nobody was going to get him away from the red and black. He stuck it out as Johnson came aboard.
“I talked to him about his goals,” Johnson says. “He made it very clear that he wanted to try to move up Draft boards. So I talked to him about, ‘You’re a really good athlete, have you thought about moving positions and showing your versatility?’ We worked to do it. In the fall, in our scrimmages, he played every position but pitcher and catcher and did it for us at a good level.”
Condon had been primarily a right fielder and first baseman in 2023. This past season, he made roughly half his starts at third base. That adaptability can aid him in an era in which defensive versatility is so highly valued.
But of course, it’s Condon’s bat that speaks loudest. He entered 2024 a consensus top-10 Draft prospect but not a clear candidate for No. 1 overall in a muddled field. His historic output at Georgia drastically altered the equation.
“At the end of the day, Charlie Condon moved himself up Draft boards and probably earned himself another $4 million [in signing bonus money],” Johnson says. “Nobody in baseball is going to get that in NIL [name, image and likeness] money. The development and the work ethic and the drive to be great still can outweigh what a player can get in NIL money.”
The one person you haven’t heard from in this Condon story is, of course, Condon himself. He was taking a pre-Draft break from media after Georgia’s season ended one win shy of the College World Series.
“I don’t necessarily feel I was wronged out of high school with my recruiting process,” Condon said. “I wasn’t the caliber of player that I am today. I always knew I was going to be a late bloomer. That’s just kinda how my family genetics were. My brother grew late, my dad grew late when he was younger. So I knew it was just gonna take a little bit more time … I just had to believe in myself and know my time was eventually going to come.”
That time is here. Nobody is missing Charlie Condon now, and, in many ways, his crazy story is just beginning.



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Charlie Morton + Logan Webb (July 4)

Charlie Morton + Logan Webb (July 4)

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Thursday brings a myriad of MLB slates, with the main DFS sites coalescing around a four-game featured slate and a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Charlie Morton and Logan Webb as the two top pitching options for tonight’s action. The Coors Field Extravaganza is again the crux of the slate, but there are alternative paths to glory.

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 4

For a limited time only, you can use promo code EMACLGMLB to get five days of access to our industry-leading MLB Lineup Generator for only $1 by clicking here!

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers

Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Charlie Morton (ATL vs. SF)

Braves vs. Giants – 3.9 implied runsFirst Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET$8,700 at DraftKings $8,800 at FanDuel$42 at Yahoo

The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has embraced that MLB DFS can make for strange bedfellows since tonight it looks like RHP Charlie Morton is the best hurler on the four-game featured slate. While this is his age-40 season, the venerable veteran continues to chug along, and he actually is coming off a jubilant June where he had a 3.10 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, accompanied by 28 strikeouts in 29 innings and only one home run allowed.

Morton continues to get just enough ground balls (45.5%) to avoid major meltdowns. His 9.14 strikeouts per nine innings is his lowest rate since 2015 when he was still with Pittsburgh, which is beyond impressive. San Francisco is a pesky lineup, but there are no daunting bats with Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski being the “best” hitters. The Giants projected lineup has a .134 ISO against right-handed hurlers this season and a 23.8% strikeout rate.

Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Webb (SF at ATL)

Giants at Braves – 4.3 implied runsFirst Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET$8,300 at DraftKings $9,300 at FanDuel$44 at Yahoo

Atlanta is still a good offense without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II, but not an elite offense. The team has tallied three or fewer runs in nine of the last 15 (60%) games, with the 9-3 record being a testament to strong pitching. RHP Logan Webb finished second in the National League Cy Young race last year, but the 27-year-old is still looking for his first All-Star Game.

Webb led the league with 216 innings last year, and he is currently pacing the peloton in starts, innings and total batters faced. Though his strikeouts will never be enough to have him among the elite DFS options, his 61% ground ball rate across his last 1,300 batters faced is impressive. Last month, Webb made six starts against a veritable gauntlet of top-tier offenses. This stretch included road games against the Cardinals, Cubs and Rangers, with home matchups versus the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees. He racked up 40 innings, a 3.83 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a respectable 36 strikeouts, allowing only a trio of taters in these tilts. The win bonus may be hard to come by, but a quality start is in play, even on the road.

Early Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Nick Pivetta (BOS at MIA)

Red Sox at Marlins – 3.6 implied runsFirst Pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET$8,600 at DraftKings $8,700 at FanDuel$42 at Yahoo

Across his last six starts, RHP Nick Pivetta has also faced some good offenses with games in Cincinnati and Toronto while getting home matchups versus Atlanta, Detroit, Philadelphia and San Diego. In these outings, Pivetta has compiled 9.95 strikeouts per nine innings, a 4.83 ERA, 4.45 FIP and 3.86 xFIP. The five home runs in the most recent 10.1 innings are a little concerning, but two were in the Great American Ballpark.

Strikeouts aside, Miami is a bottom-3 team in most standard and advanced offensive metrics. In the last 13 games, the team has scored more than four runs only three times, with two or fewer runs on half a dozen occasions. Pivetta has an appropriate salary for this matchup, but there is still a little room for upside and the baseline floor is very desirable.

 

MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Tampa Bay Rays

Rays at Royals – 4.6 implied runsFirst Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ETOpposing Starter: RHP Alec MarshDK Top Stack %: 17.4%FD Top Stack %: 17.7%

The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the matchup for Tampa, giving the Rays the non-Coors Field Extravaganza nod for the featured slate. Anytime the Rays are on the road, it is almost always a park upgrade, giving a boost to their non-descript offense. RHP Alec Marsh has seen his results end up all over the place, with mercurial madness.

The 26-year-old held the Yankees scoreless for seven innings, only to give up seven runs in Oakland, lasting only three innings in the very next start. There are flashes of brilliance, but inconsistency still looms large for the youngster.

Tampa does not have as deep a lineup as we have seen in recent years, and the team has been dealing with a myriad of injuries to key hitters. Lefties Brandon and Josh Lowe (no relation) are excellent when they hold the platoon advantage, and Isaac Paredes continues to be an unsung hero with a .362 wOBA and .200 ISO in same-handed matchups this season. Randy Arozarena is the most recognizable name, but he has been in a funk at the plate, along with unconventional leadoff hitter Yandy Diaz. This duo still warrants consideration for full stacks, with Richie Palacios and Jose Siri providing discounted differentiation, depending on your DFS site of choice.

Early Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees

Yankees vs. Reds – 5.1 implied runsFirst Pitch: 1:05 p.m. ETOpposing Starter: RHP Frankie MontasDK Top Stack %: 5.8%FD Top Stack %: 5.9%

Interestingly enough, there is already some buzz today from a couple of early articles that are recommending RHP Frankie Montas. Now please note, this is not besmirching the hard work of my fellow scribes, as I know all too well how hard it is to come up with content every day that has a shelf life, similar to that of a fruit fly. However, if this stand starts to gain traction, I am more than willing to be on the other side.

This is a “Remember Me?!” game for Montas, and the crowd is unlikely to be friendly in any form or fashion. In 2022, New York gave up a haul to bring in Montas at the trade deadline, only to get eight horrific starts that season and just one the following year after Montas missed most of the season with shoulder inflammation. It is good to see Montas contributing again this season, but he is now 31 years old and his 7.22 strikeouts and 3.73 walks per nine innings are no bueno. The 4.23 ERA is supported by his 4.53 xERA and 4.57 xFIP, but that is not going to get it done against the Bronx Bombers.

Even without Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo, the Yankees are still anchored by All-Star starters Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Alex Verdugo continues to be a complete hitter, with a low strikeout rate and above-average contact and power. This makes for a strong core, with options such as Anthony Volpe, Trent Grisham and catcher Ben Rice available to fill out full stacks.

If you need some more tips on how to use the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to maximize your lessons learned from the Sims! Check it out HERE.

Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today

This has been a rough season for Bo Bichette, and we can target the MLB legacy in the sports wagering world for his under 1.5 total bases, which is available at -103 on Caesars.

New users at Caesars can receive a “first bet reward” up to $1,000; click here for details.

OddsShopper shows this bet has -117 “true odds” for Bichette to fall under this threshold, which brings a stellar 6.4% expected ROI.

 

 

We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by BetRivers and Unibet at -132, which is indicative of a NEGATIVE 5% expected ROI.

In 60 plate appearances against southpaws, Bichette has managed only a .181 wOBA and a .035 ISO. Looking at traditional metrics, in 57 at-bats versus lefties, Bichette has a .158/.200/.193 triple-slash line with nine hits, including two doubles. Last year Bichette was cruising whenever he had the platoon advantage, with a .323/.368/.525 triple-slash and 12 extra-base hits in 99 at-bats.

The matchup against LHP Framber Valdez is not an easy one, as the lefty has a wicked 60%-plus ground ball rate while suppressing extra-base hits. Yes, one swing of the bat or a couple of dying quails could get Bichette to his two total bases, but the math indicates this is exactly the type of wager we should target.

Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.

Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Thursday, July 4

Pittsburgh looks to be the only location with any precipitation issues, so keep tabs on the forecast if you are playing the early slate. Though, as always, be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.

Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET brought to you by DraftKings Pick6 – new users, use this link to receive $50 with your first $5 play!

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